By Lee Seong-hyon
Yang Jiechi, a senior adviser to Chinese President Xi Jinping, is reportedly to land here soon. Yang is a member of the Political Bureau, the Communist Party's supreme 25-member committee. What draws our attention is that he is director of the CPC's Office of Foreign Affairs, China's highest foreign affairs decision-making body, headed by Xi. Yang is comparable to Suh Hoon, President Moon Jae-in's director of National Security Office, or equivalent to the White House National Security Adviser in the United States.
Yang is a known quantity. Decades ago, as a junior foreign ministry official, he worked as an English translator for George H. Bush and forged personal relations with the Bush family, who affectionately calling him "Tiger Yang," referring to the year of the tiger when Yang was born (He was born in 1950). Yang had three tours of duty in Washington, including as China's ambassador. Later, he also served as foreign minister.
Earlier this year, Yang visited Japan to coordinate Xi's expected visit there, which was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The primary purpose of his visit to Seoul, this time, is also seen as preparing for Xi's visit to South Korea, likely within the year. Both Seoul and Beijing have been working on this for some time.
The Moon administration has been anxious for Xi's visit, hoping to reenergize economic ties with China. Beijng initiated economic retaliation against Seoul after the latter agreed to the deployment of an advanced U.S. anti-missile system, called THAAD. China reacts sensitively to U.S. military moves in its vicinity.
Yet Xi's visit to South Korea, if it materializes, will likely be a double-edged sword for Seoul, which has been feeling pinched between Washington and Beijing. The U.S. is South Korea's most important security partner and the only military-pact ally. Beijing is Seoul's largest trading partner. The problem is that Washington and Beijing are not getting along well these days. A summit between Moon and Xi will take place against such a backdrop.
A summit between the two heads of the state is not only an occasion for symbolic photo-ops showcasing strengthening bilateral ties, but also a give-and-take occasion for political and economic dividends. And a lot is at stake.
As stated, what Seoul wants is an improvement in economic ties, including lifting restrictions on K-pop, K-drama, and online games such as "Dungeon Fighter," developed by Nexon. Nexon had to rely on its Chinese partner, Tencent, to distribute the popular game in the Chinese market. It's a very profitable deal for Tencent, which takes the majority of the revenue. South Korean retail giant Lotte had to shutter its entire China business due to the Chinese retaliation for Lotte's allowing its golf course to be used for the THAAD deployment. South Korean cosmetics, very popular in China, met a similar fate, not to mention the tourism industry.
In addition, Moon will also likely ask for Xi's cooperation in resolving the North Korea nuclear issue. In sum, South Korea needs China for its economy and also the North Korea problem. In the game of diplomatic dealing, such dependence puts South Korea at a disadvantage, from the beginning.
The problem is that it is not clear what Moon can give to Xi in return. Since it's unlikely to be economic bargaining, Xi will look to the diplomatic and political sectors. And this is where things could get really complicated. China has long sought to weaken the military alliance between South Korea and the United States, seeing it as Washington's primary security structure to contain China in Northeast Asia, together with Washington's military alliance with Tokyo. Xi's request could be concrete, touching upon South Korea's position in U.S.-led initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific strategy, Economic Prosperity Network (EPA), and the Clean Network initiative. Xi may also ask Moon to formally declare South Korea's joining the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Moon has been seen as very eager to host Xi. But he needs to be clear about what he is getting into. Observers view that the current administration has been increasingly leaning toward Beijing (despite the THAAD dispute). If this is a misperception, then Moon should amend it. If, however, what appears is a reflection of the reality on the ground, then Xi's visit may serve as a harbinger of historical significance down the road.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.
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Yang is a known quantity. Decades ago, as a junior foreign ministry official, he worked as an English translator for George H. Bush and forged personal relations with the Bush family, who affectionately calling him "Tiger Yang," referring to the year of the tiger when Yang was born (He was born in 1950). Yang had three tours of duty in Washington, including as China's ambassador. Later, he also served as foreign minister.
Earlier this year, Yang visited Japan to coordinate Xi's expected visit there, which was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The primary purpose of his visit to Seoul, this time, is also seen as preparing for Xi's visit to South Korea, likely within the year. Both Seoul and Beijing have been working on this for some time.
The Moon administration has been anxious for Xi's visit, hoping to reenergize economic ties with China. Beijng initiated economic retaliation against Seoul after the latter agreed to the deployment of an advanced U.S. anti-missile system, called THAAD. China reacts sensitively to U.S. military moves in its vicinity.
Yet Xi's visit to South Korea, if it materializes, will likely be a double-edged sword for Seoul, which has been feeling pinched between Washington and Beijing. The U.S. is South Korea's most important security partner and the only military-pact ally. Beijing is Seoul's largest trading partner. The problem is that Washington and Beijing are not getting along well these days. A summit between Moon and Xi will take place against such a backdrop.
A summit between the two heads of the state is not only an occasion for symbolic photo-ops showcasing strengthening bilateral ties, but also a give-and-take occasion for political and economic dividends. And a lot is at stake.
As stated, what Seoul wants is an improvement in economic ties, including lifting restrictions on K-pop, K-drama, and online games such as "Dungeon Fighter," developed by Nexon. Nexon had to rely on its Chinese partner, Tencent, to distribute the popular game in the Chinese market. It's a very profitable deal for Tencent, which takes the majority of the revenue. South Korean retail giant Lotte had to shutter its entire China business due to the Chinese retaliation for Lotte's allowing its golf course to be used for the THAAD deployment. South Korean cosmetics, very popular in China, met a similar fate, not to mention the tourism industry.
In addition, Moon will also likely ask for Xi's cooperation in resolving the North Korea nuclear issue. In sum, South Korea needs China for its economy and also the North Korea problem. In the game of diplomatic dealing, such dependence puts South Korea at a disadvantage, from the beginning.
The problem is that it is not clear what Moon can give to Xi in return. Since it's unlikely to be economic bargaining, Xi will look to the diplomatic and political sectors. And this is where things could get really complicated. China has long sought to weaken the military alliance between South Korea and the United States, seeing it as Washington's primary security structure to contain China in Northeast Asia, together with Washington's military alliance with Tokyo. Xi's request could be concrete, touching upon South Korea's position in U.S.-led initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific strategy, Economic Prosperity Network (EPA), and the Clean Network initiative. Xi may also ask Moon to formally declare South Korea's joining the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Moon has been seen as very eager to host Xi. But he needs to be clear about what he is getting into. Observers view that the current administration has been increasingly leaning toward Beijing (despite the THAAD dispute). If this is a misperception, then Moon should amend it. If, however, what appears is a reflection of the reality on the ground, then Xi's visit may serve as a harbinger of historical significance down the road.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute.
